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SA Raw Materials Market Update – October 2026
Repo rate, producer prices for chemicals, CPI and fuel: the official October 2026 numbers for South African and SADC raw-material buyers.
I Am Chemicals Team
October 20, 2026
SA raw materials market update, October 2026
Key numbers this month
7.25%
Repo rate (from 25 Sep)
+5.4%
Chemical products PPI, y/y (Aug)
4.4%
Headline CPI (Aug)
+284 c/l
Diesel 0.05%, wholesale (7 Oct)

A short monthly summary of the official numbers that affect the cost and planning of chemical and raw-material purchases in South Africa. We only report published data and link to every source. We don't forecast prices.

1. Interest rates: repo rate up to 7.25%

At last month's Monetary Policy Committee meeting (23 September 2026), the South African Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, effective 25 September. The decision was unanimous. The SARB pointed to a large global supply shock, including the escalation of the Middle East conflict, very little oil getting through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to refinery capacity from the Russia-Ukraine war. It raised its Brent crude assumption to US$90.9/bbl for Q3 2026 and US$95.1 for Q4.

The SARB expects headline inflation to go above 5% later this year, mainly because of fuel. It noted the resilience of the rand (its forecast assumes R16.29/US$ for Q3 2026). The next MPC statement is due on 19 November 2026.

Why it matters for buyers: higher borrowing costs affect stock-holding and credit terms across the supply chain. Planning orders earlier can reduce the need for expensive short-notice stock.

2. Producer prices: chemical inflation eased in August

Stats SA's Producer Price Index for August 2026 (released 30 September):

  • Final manufactured goods: +5.0% year on year (down from 5.7% in July), and –0.4% month on month.
  • Coke, petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products (final goods): +13.6% y/y, the biggest contributor to annual PPI (2.9 percentage points), but –1.4% m/m.
  • Final-goods chemical products: +5.4% y/y (6.0% in July).
  • Coal and petroleum products: +20.9% y/y (24.4% in July). Diesel: +31.9% y/y (29.4% in July).
  • Intermediate chemicals, rubber and plastic products: +11.6% y/y and –5.3% m/m, the main negative contributor to the monthly change in intermediate goods. Within this group, basic and other chemicals were +13.2% y/y and –5.9% m/m.

Reading the numbers: chemical prices at producer level fell month on month in August, and annual rates for final-goods chemical products eased, although intermediate chemical prices remain well above a year earlier. Note that the August figures do not yet include the large fuel increase of 7 October (below).

3. Consumer inflation

Headline CPI was 4.4% in August 2026, up from 4.3% in July, and unchanged month on month (Stats SA). Transport inflation was 8.8%, and fuel prices in the CPI were 20.0% higher than a year earlier.

4. Fuel and freight costs: another sharp increase on 7 October

The official adjustment that took effect on Wednesday 7 October 2026 (CEF on behalf of the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, announced 2 October):

  • Diesel 0.05% sulphur: +284.38 c/l (wholesale); diesel 0.005% sulphur: +324.38 c/l (wholesale).
  • Petrol 93: +312 c/l; petrol 95: +333 c/l (retail).
  • The CEF and the Minister put the increase down to higher international product prices, linked to supply shortages and lower global inventories.
  • The average rand/US dollar exchange rate for the review period was almost unchanged (R16.212 compared with R16.213), so the rand gave no relief this month.
  • The slate levy rose from 83.28 c/l to 87.66 c/l.

Chart comparing official fuel price increases on 2 September and 7 October 2026 for diesel and petrol, in cents per litre

This follows the 2 September adjustment (diesel 0.05% +293.9 c/l and 0.005% +314.9 c/l wholesale; petrol 93 and 95 +134 c/l retail). Over the two months, wholesale diesel has risen by about R5.78 a litre (0.05% sulphur) and R6.39 a litre (0.005% sulphur).

Why it matters: diesel is a major part of road-freight cost for local deliveries and for cross-border loads. Where quotes include delivery, check how long they are valid.

5. What we are watching next month

  • Stats SA CPI for September (21 October).
  • Stats SA PPI for September (29 October).
  • The monthly fuel price adjustment, effective Wednesday 4 November.
  • The SARB MPC statement on 19 November.
  • Any change in the rand/US dollar rate, which drives the landed cost of imported raw materials.

Practical takeaways for procurement teams

  • Confirm validity periods on quotes, especially where fuel or exchange rates are a large share of cost.
  • Plan ahead for year-end. Order early for December and January to cover supplier shutdowns and busier borders.
  • Check shelf life. Stock bought early should still have enough life left when it is used or re-exported.

I Am Chemicals is a South African-based supplier of industrial and speciality raw materials. For availability or a quotation, email adele@iamchemicals.co.za or call +27 74 524 8671.

Official data only; no price forecasts. Figures as published by the cited sources, checked 19 October 2026.

Sources

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